Player trading model
What One Professional Returns
A produced professional is not a cost that ends at eighteen. Every graduate lands somewhere — a domestic contract, a regional or second-tier move abroad, a mid-tier European or Gulf top division, or the top-five league outlier that pays for everything else. Each destination carries a first fee, a likely onward sale, and a career. Two streams matter and they are never mixed here: the trading income that returns to the academy and the county, and the player’s own earnings, part of which comes home.
Cost to produce one
$121,814
Average across the counties
Trading income per professional
$444,900
3.65x the cost of production
Career earnings per professional
$1.19m
$331,912 comes home
Total economic value per professional
$1.63m
Trading plus career earnings
| Destination | Share of graduates | First fee | Onward sale | Sell-on 15% | Solidarity and training | Trading income | Career earnings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domestic professional (Kenyan Premier League)A contract at home. No international fee, but a wage, a shop window and a coach in the making. | 50% | $25,000 | — | — | — | $25,000 | $76,800 |
| Regional and second-tier abroadTanzania, Zambia, South Africa, the Gulf second tier and Scandinavian second divisions — the route most Kenyan professionals actually take first. | 30% | $120,000 | $340,000 | $51,000 | $41,000 | $212,000 | $378,000 |
| Mid-tier European or Gulf top divisionBelgium, Portugal, Turkey, Poland, Saudi and Qatar — where a first sale is followed by a materially larger second one. | 16% | $620,000 | $2.40m | $360,000 | $144,000 | $1.12m | $2.86m |
| Top-five European leagueThe outlier that pays for everything else. Kenya has produced these players already, without a development system behind them. | 4% | $2.50m | $11.00m | $1.65m | $574,000 | $4.72m | $14.40m |
135.5 professionals a year, $60.28m back into Kenya
At full delivery the pathway produces about 135 professionals a year. On these destination probabilities that is $60.3m a year of trading income back into Kenyan academies and counties, and $160.6m a year of player earnings, roughly $45.0m of which comes home.
Professionals produced a year
136
14 academy places per professional
Trading income a year
$60.28m
$602.84m over ten years
Player earnings a year
$160.62m
$44.97m returning as remittance
Cost of producing them
$16.51m
Annual development cost of that cohort
County by county
Only counties holding an academy, the national training base or the women’s pathway produce professionals. Return multiple is the trading income per professional against what that county spends to produce one — the counties at the top of this list are where a pound of development money works hardest.
| County | Academy places | Professionals a year | Cost per professional | Trading income | Player earnings | Remittance home | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tana River | 144 | 2.6 | $79,626 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 5.59x |
| West Pokot | 144 | 2.6 | $79,626 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 5.59x |
| Samburu | 144 | 2.6 | $81,246 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 5.48x |
| Wajir | 144 | 2.6 | $83,000 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 5.36x |
| Mandera | 144 | 2.6 | $83,000 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 5.36x |
| Marsabit | 144 | 2.6 | $83,000 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 5.36x |
| Makueni | 144 | 2.6 | $83,000 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 5.36x |
| Turkana | 144 | 2.6 | $83,000 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 5.36x |
| Baringo | 144 | 2.6 | $83,000 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 5.36x |
| Kitui | 144 | 2.6 | $83,000 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 5.36x |
| Tharaka Nithi | 144 | 2.6 | $84,620 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 5.26x |
| Elgeyo Marakwet | 144 | 2.6 | $84,620 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 5.26x |
| Garissa | 144 | 2.6 | $86,374 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 5.15x |
| Isiolo | 144 | 2.6 | $86,374 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 5.15x |
| Taita Taveta | 144 | 2.6 | $90,153 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 4.93x |
| Kwale | 144 | 2.6 | $91,368 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 4.87x |
| Narok | 144 | 2.6 | $99,466 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 4.47x |
| Embu | 144 | 2.6 | $99,735 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 4.46x |
| Lamu | 144 | 2.6 | $101,355 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 4.39x |
| Homa Bay | 144 | 2.6 | $104,324 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 4.26x |
| Nandi | 144 | 2.6 | $104,594 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 4.25x |
| Laikipia | 144 | 2.6 | $104,729 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 4.25x |
| Kilifi | 144 | 2.6 | $104,864 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 4.24x |
| Meru | 144 | 2.6 | $106,483 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 4.18x |
| Siaya | 144 | 2.6 | $107,428 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 4.14x |
| Bomet | 144 | 2.6 | $108,508 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 4.1x |
| Migori | 144 | 2.6 | $114,041 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 3.9x |
| Trans Nzoia | 144 | 2.6 | $115,256 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 3.86x |
| Nyandarua | 144 | 2.6 | $118,225 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 3.76x |
| Nyeri | 144 | 2.6 | $120,384 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 3.7x |
| Kajiado | 144 | 2.6 | $122,274 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 3.64x |
| Murang'a | 144 | 2.6 | $123,893 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 3.59x |
| Kericho | 144 | 2.6 | $125,783 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 3.54x |
| Busia | 144 | 2.6 | $127,942 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 3.48x |
| Kirinyaga | 144 | 2.6 | $129,966 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 3.42x |
| Bungoma | 144 | 2.6 | $131,721 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 3.38x |
| Machakos | 144 | 2.6 | $133,475 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 3.33x |
| Uasin Gishu | 144 | 2.6 | $135,635 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 3.28x |
| Nakuru | 144 | 2.6 | $140,358 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 3.17x |
| Kakamega | 144 | 2.6 | $144,542 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 3.08x |
| Nyamira | 144 | 2.6 | $163,976 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 2.71x |
| Vihiga | 144 | 2.6 | $182,871 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 2.43x |
| Kisii | 144 | 2.6 | $187,190 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 2.38x |
| Kisumu | 144 | 2.6 | $189,754 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 2.34x |
| Kiambu | 144 | 2.6 | $251,835 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 1.77x |
| Mombasa | 144 | 2.6 | $267,896 | $1.16m | $3.08m | $862,971 | 1.66x |
| Nairobi | 888 | 15.9 | $311,758 | $7.07m | $18.85m | $5.28m | 1.43x |
The method
Method ------ Every academy graduate lands in one of four destinations, with a probability drawn from what has actually happened to Kenyan professionals: a domestic contract, a regional or second-tier move abroad, a mid-tier European or Gulf top division, or a top-five league. Each destination carries a first transfer fee, a likely onward sale, and a career length. Two income streams are counted separately and never mixed: 1. PROGRAMME TRADING INCOME — money that returns to the academy and the county: the first transfer fee, a 15% sell-on share of the next sale, and FIFA training compensation and the 5% solidarity contribution on subsequent international transfers, which is payable to the clubs that trained the player between 12 and 23. 2. PLAYER AND LOCAL ECONOMY INCOME — the player's own career earnings, appearance and image income and the share of it that comes home as remittance and local spending. Every figure is an estimate published for challenge, benchmarked on documented Kenyan and East African transfers rather than on West African outliers.
Sources
Sources and Method — every number, and when it was last readDestination probabilities, fees and career lengths are our own estimates, benchmarked on documented Kenyan and East African moves rather than West African outliers, and published so they can be argued with.